Brazil portfolio
Stocks listed on B3, selected by models trained on the Brazilian panel. For investors in reais who want exposure to the domestic cycle.
- Universe
- B3 stocks with a liquidity filter
- Currency
- Brazilian real
- Benchmark
- Ibovespa
Quantitative research · Brazil and United States
AI models trained from scratch on Brazilian and US economic data.
Machina does not apply one generic model to different markets. Each market has its own database — thousands of macroeconomic series, listed-company fundamentals, prices from B3, NYSE and Nasdaq, news, and communication from Brazil's Copom and the Fed — and its own network trained from scratch. Every output goes through human review before it becomes a recommendation.
- A data panel on the site with macro and company data for both markets, cleaned and comparable, including dividend payment dates.
- Three model portfolios — Brazil, United States and mixed — with explicit weights, horizon and review criteria.
- An economic report, written by hand, explaining every position in the portfolios.
Research signed by a certified securities analyst (CNPI, APIMEC). The personalized advisory service (CVM Resolution 19) will be offered once authorization from the CVM, Brazil's securities regulator, is complete.
Model output · h+1
- Markets
- B3 · NYSE · Nasdaq
- Architectures
- Transformer · LSTM · TFT
- Target
- Return h+1
- Historical observations
- Over 300 million
- Validation
- Out of sample, against baselines
Illustrative sketch of a forecasting model's output with quantile bands. It does not represent a specific asset or an actual result.
2markets — B3 and NYSE/Nasdaq — each with its own data panel and models
>300 Mhistorical observations in the training data
3model portfolios — Brazil, United States and mixed — reviewed in the same cycle
R$ 0in commissions from brokers, asset managers or issuers. All revenue comes from subscribers
The thesis
Data-driven return forecasting
A generic model does not see the DI curve, exchange-rate pass-through or electricity load in Brazil — nor the Treasury curve, Fed financial conditions or the SEC earnings calendar in the United States. Machina trains one model per market, on the same infrastructure and with the same rigor.
Data with the right date
Each series enters the panel on the date it was actually published, not the date it refers to. Prices are adjusted for dividends and corporate actions; fundamentals enter on their release date. This keeps the model from learning from information nobody had at the time.
One model per market
Brazil and the United States have their own databases and networks, trained from scratch in the same pipeline. The DI curve and electricity load inform the Brazilian model; the Treasury curve and SEC-filed fundamentals inform the US one.
Measured against the simple
No forecast is worth anything on its own. Each model is evaluated out of sample against simple alternatives — the historical mean and classic factor models — and the result, favorable or not, goes into the report.
What subscribers get
Three deliverables, updated in the same model cycle.
Everything lives in the subscriber area of the site. Nothing depends on a chat group or an attachment lost in your inbox.
Data panel
Macro series and company indicators for Brazil and the United States, selected by the team, cleaned and comparable with each other.
- Activity, interest rates, FX, credit and energy blocks, in both countries
- Multiples and fundamentals by company — B3, NYSE and Nasdaq — on an adjusted basis
- Dividend payment calendar
- Full history, with the date each data point became available
Updates · continuous
Model portfolios
Three allocations suggested by the analyst — Brazil, United States and mixed — with explicit weights, horizon and review criteria.
- Brazil, US and mixed portfolios, published together
- Weights by asset, exposure by sector and, in the mixed portfolio, by country and currency
- Horizon of each position and exit trigger
- Historical record of all past recommendations
Reviews · throughout the month
Economic report
The document that turns the model portfolios into a readable view of the outlook.
- Macro outlook in Brazil and the United States, and what changed since the previous report
- Each position's contribution to risk and expected return, in all three portfolios
- What would make the model change its mind
Published · monthly, in PDF
The three portfolios
Brazil, the United States, or both. Subscribers choose the map; the method is the same.
Every portfolio comes out of the same pipeline: a point-in-time panel, models trained from scratch on the corresponding market, an optimizer with weight limits, and review by the analyst. What changes is the universe, the currency and the risk each one accepts.
United States portfolio
Stocks listed on NYSE and Nasdaq, selected by models trained on the US panel — FRED macro data, SEC fundamentals and prices from the source. For investors abroad or those who want to diversify away from the real.
- Universe
- NYSE and Nasdaq stocks with a liquidity filter
- Currency
- US dollar
- Benchmark
- S&P 500
Mixed portfolio
Allocation across both markets, with currency exposure treated as an explicit portfolio risk rather than a side effect. For those who want a single global portfolio with the house view.
- Universe
- Union of both universes
- Currency
- Brazilian real, with the dollar exposure disclosed
- Benchmark
- Ibovespa and S&P 500, weighted by the allocation
The three portfolios are published together, in the same cycle, and each keeps its own record of recommendations. None of them is a personalized recommendation: whether they suit your profile is your decision — or the subject of the advisory service, once authorized.
Fit
Who Machina is for — and who it is not for.
We would rather lose a subscriber at the door than disappoint them in the third month.
It makes sense if you
- invest in stocks — in Brazil, the United States or both.
- want to understand why a position entered the portfolio.
- want investment research with a quantitative view, not an opinion-driven one.
It does not make sense if you
- focus on the very short term or day trading.
- expect promised returns or a guaranteed return target.
- want someone to trade your account. We do not execute orders or hold client assets.
Discipline
What Machina does not do.
A research firm is defined as much by what it publishes as by what it refuses to publish.
- 01We do not publish a backtest without an out-of-sample validation window.
- 02We do not use, in any model, information that did not exist on the simulated date.
- 03We do not promise returns, nor suggest that past results will repeat.
- 04We do not execute orders, hold client assets or manage third-party portfolios.
- 05We receive no commissions from distributors, brokers or issuers. Revenue comes from subscribers.
- 06We do not hide a negative model result: it goes into the report like any other.
Plans
Subscribe to the level of access your process requires.
No lock-in and no cancellation fee. Prices in Brazilian reais (R$).
2 months free
Observatory
To follow our work before subscribing
Free
No credit card
- Monthly macro letter by email
- Panel with 12 indicators
Subscriber
For those who invest with the portfolios and the report
R$ 129/month
or R$ 1,290 on the annual plan
- Full macro and company data panel, Brazil and US
- All three model portfolios — Brazil, US and mixed — with reviews throughout the month
- Monthly economic report in PDF
- Complete recommendation history
Pro
For those who run their own process with our data
R$ 349/month
or R$ 3,490 on the annual plan
- Everything in Subscriber
- Per-asset forecasts with quantile bands, in both markets
- Conditional covariance matrix and CSV export
- AI assistant trained on the house database
Securities advisory
For those who need personalized recommendations and ongoing oversight of their own wealth, rather than published content. Compensation is a fee on assets under advisory, with no third-party commissions. Service subject to completion of authorization by the CVM.
Cancelling stops the next renewal; access remains until the end of the paid period. On the annual plan, the amount is charged at once and equals ten monthly payments.
Who signs the research
Thiago Ramos Almeida
Finance professional with 20 years of experience in financial analysis at an energy-sector company. He built the data infrastructure and the models behind Machina, and publishes research in peer-reviewed international journals.
- Certifications
- CNPI (no. 10381) and CPRO-I (ANBIMA)
- Education
- PhD in Economics (Universidade Federal Fluminense), with research in financial econometrics
- Profile
- LinkedIn ↗
Selected publications
Estimating time-varying factors' variance in the string-term structure model with stochastic volatility
Research in International Business and Finance, v. 70, Part A, Elsevier, 2024.
doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102337 ↗Option-implied belief dispersion and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the Brazilian oil market
Finance Research Letters — Elsevier, 2025.
doi.org/10.1016/j.finr.2025.100044 ↗The methodology behind these publications — extracting information from market prices — is built into the factors used by the house models.
Skin in the game
The analyst who signs the portfolios invests his own money in the same assets recommended to subscribers. Personal trades only happen after the recommendation reaches subscribers and follow the house trading policy, in accordance with CVM Resolution 20. Having his own money at stake shows conviction; it does not remove risk or guarantee results.
Frequently asked questions
Regulation, scope and limits of the service.
Is Machina an advisory firm or a research firm?
They are two distinct services, regulated separately in Brazil. The subscription content is securities research: published material, the same for all subscribers, without considering anyone's individual situation. Advisory is a personalized recommendation, provided under CVM Resolution 19 through a specific contract. Machina is in the process of obtaining authorization to provide advisory services; until then, only the content subscription is offered.
How often are the deliverables updated?
The data and model pipeline runs every week. The panel is updated as sources publish; the three model portfolios are reviewed throughout the month whenever the model or the analyst changes view; and the economic report is published monthly in PDF, with a record of what changed since the previous edition.
How do the three portfolios — Brazil, United States and mixed — work?
The Brazil portfolio holds B3 stocks and the United States portfolio holds NYSE and Nasdaq stocks; each comes from models trained on its own market's data panel. The mixed portfolio allocates across both universes and treats dollar exposure as an explicit risk, with the weight by country disclosed. All three are published together, in the same cycle, with the same format of weights, horizon and exit trigger. Execution is always yours, at the broker of your choice, in Brazil or abroad.
Do you execute orders or hold my money?
No, under no circumstances. Machina does not receive, move or hold client funds, has no power to trade accounts and does not manage portfolios. Orders are always placed by you, at your broker, at your discretion.
How are you paid?
Only by subscribers or, for advisory, by a contracted fee on assets under advisory. We receive no commissions, rebates or any other compensation from brokers, asset managers, distributors or issuers of the assets we cover.
Does the analyst invest in his own recommendations?
Yes. The analyst who signs the portfolios invests his own money in the same assets recommended to subscribers. Personal trades only happen after the recommendation reaches subscribers and follow the house trading policy, in accordance with CVM Resolution 20. Having his own money at stake shows conviction; it does not remove risk or guarantee results.
Do the models guarantee returns?
No. No statistical model predicts asset returns reliably — what they do is estimate conditional distributions and reduce error relative to trivial alternatives, when they can. We publish that error measure, including when it is unfavorable to the model. Equity investments involve risk of loss, including of the capital invested.
What keeps the model from “fitting the past”?
The design of the data panel. Each series enters with its real publication lag (in the United States, fundamentals enter on the date the form was filed with the SEC), prices are adjusted for dividends and corporate actions on the correct date, and validation uses only windows after the training period. When we find look-ahead leakage, we fix it and report its impact on results already published.
Can I cancel at any time?
Yes. Subscriptions have no lock-in and no penalty. Cancelling stops the next renewal and access remains active until the end of the period already paid.
What do you do with my data?
The name and email you give us are used only to send the monthly letter and notices about subscriptions opening. We do not share data with third parties or use the list for any other purpose. You can leave at any time through the unsubscribe link or by writing to [email protected], in accordance with Brazil's data protection law (LGPD).
Founding list
Get the macro letter and notice when subscriptions open.
We send the monthly letter and nothing else. No data shared with third parties, one-click unsubscribe.
Prefer to talk directly with the analyst? [email protected]
Received. As soon as the first letter goes out, it will arrive at the email you provided. To talk directly with the analyst, write to [email protected].